Hive Green Candles in Uptober

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We are currently at Block 89761621. I thought I would continue to do a monthly blog post about Hive where I can track some of the meaningful stats and share my thoughts and look at some of the sentiments at the time.

Since my last post, the price has moved from $0,1643 to $0,1940. This is a nice healthy move considering we haven't had any action yet in Uptober. Perhaps we still have time in Uptober for stronger moves or it will be Moonvember when we will see some face melting in the crypto markets. When Bitcoin pumps, the hope is that it will lift all boats, including Hive.

The current supply of Hive stands at 453,960,341, which is nearly 4m Hive higher than last month. This means the current inflation of Hive is around 10% annualised. The higher than expected inflation is related to HBD selling pressure due to DHF, interest and maintaining the HBD peg costs.

The supply excluding Hive held in the DAO is 413798885. The DAO's Hive supply is decreasing each month as it is being converted into HBD. So far the DAO's HBD stands at 22.82m HBD and this should also be removed from the freely circulating supply market cap.

The Hive market cap seems to have increased since last month. The market cap of Hive last month was $44.26m and this month is $57.45m which is a nice 30% rise in market cap! My market cap figures are lower than you might see other places as I remove the Hive and HBD held by the DAO from these figures as they are not freely trading and this is standard practice for calculating market cap.

HBD & Debt Limit

The current supply of HBD is at 33,74m, which is an increase of just 70k since last month. The supply of HBD outside of the DAO is 10.92m, which is 246k higher than last month. So whilst the HBD in the DAO decreased, more users decided to hold HBD for that 15% interest.

The debt limit excluding the DAO stands at 19%, which is quite high. If we include the DAO HBD, the debt limit is at 58,7%. We can see that the privately held debt of Hive is at quite an elevated level, but if we include the DHF, it seems to be pretty huge to support. I do not know of any other chains with such a huge DAO in comparison to the market cap.

Hive needs to either reduce it or increase the market cap by making powering up Hive more attractive. But with these debt dynamics, it does not seem attractive right now to buy Hive, even with these "low" prices. The prices are low for a reason.

HBD Stabaliser

An area I have not yet managed to take a good look at is the HBD Stabaliser. According to the reports I have read, the HBD Stabaliser is making a "profit" and is running well.

Considering it is maintaining a peg, I find that hard to believe. I have signed up to HiveSQL and hope to crunch some of the numbers of this account myself to see exactly what is happening and what impact it is having on the key metrics of Hive. I hope to have something in my next update.

In the meantime, from what I could workout is that it is costing around $100k per month to maintain the peg. What I am interested to find out is how much has been spent overall to maintain the peg and annualised costs.

Summary

Hive has had a nice boost to its price and market cap in Uptober and things are looking more healthy on chain after this increase. However, the debt levels are very elevated and should be reduced either with more investment in Hive or reducing the debt.

Summary Date: 13.10.2024
Hive Price : $0,1940
Hive Supply: 453,960,341
Hive DAO: 40,161,456
Hive DAO HBD: 22,823,421
Hive Market Cap: $57,453,562
HBD Supply: 33,747,522
HBD Outside of the DAO: 10,924,101
Debt limit excluding DAO: 19%
Debt limit all HBD: 58,7%

Hive data taken from Hive Explorer.

Thanks for reading.

Credits:

Title image created with Hive logo and clipart from canva.

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